Modeling Age-Specific Mortality in India (2019-2023) Using Life-Table Analysis and Generalized Additive Models
Authors: Abhijeet Jadhav
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18897855
Page No: 1
Abstract
Abstract This study examines age-specific mortality patterns in India during 2019-2023 using official life-table data stratified by sex and place of residence. Mortality rates and survival probabilities were analysed across age groups, excluding the open-ended 85+ interval due to missing mortality probabilities. Poisson regression was used to estimate baseline mortality differences by sex and residence, with person-years of exposure as offsets. Generalized additive models were applied to capture nonlinear age mortality relationships. Results show the expected U-shaped age pattern of mortality, with consistently higher mortality among males and rural populations across most adult ages. Females and urban residents exhibit higher survival probabilities throughout the life course. The smoothed mortality curves demonstrate stable age effects and highlight persistent demographic disparities. The proposed framework provides a flexible and robust approach for analysing age-specific mortality and population-level risk differentials.
